One of the interesting things, I think, is how de-racinated Trump's 2024 (and 2020) platforms were compared to his 2016 platform. He likely came to believe that it was no longer possible to win on the basis of white populism due to demographic changes -- too much immigration, too much of an aging white population which had too few children to win on that basis moving forward -- and therefore he had to shift away from white populism and toward broad-based raceless economic populism. Indeed, this is similar to Latin America, where there are "right" and "left" parties but only on the basis of economic and religious positions, not race. Given demographic realities elections will be held on this basis moving forward unless Trump kicks out tens of millions of illegals, which I do not think will happen.
That sounds generally right to me. Though, I don't think deportation is going to change that. Illegals cannot vote and I think many (even Hispanic Americans) are OK with applying immigration law.
My estimate is that 20 million illegals were let in within the past four years alone, although official numbers are only something like 5 million. The level of deportations required to change just what happened in the past four years would be unprecedented in American history. How many illegals do you think Trump will deport?
My guess is that Trump will be allowed to build some miles of wall as a superficial win and he will evict some of the worst felon illegals, but structurally, what has happened will not be reversed.
it is good to see some reinforcement for the concept of class being reintroduced in to discussions about the distribution of health and wellbeing in our society. this constitutes a rediscovery of the original understanding of health inequities which emerged in the anglophone world in the UK 50 years ago when it was noted by Marmot and others that despite having a universal national health service, morbidity and mortality rates were profoundly linked to class. it has taken all those years for the US to catch up-though in crossing the Atlantic we dropped the notion of class and focused on race instead and we turned the social determinants of health from being about populations to being about individuals. i would argue this change is extremely revealing of our societal politics and the retreat from class and the concept of a social welfare state. this brings us to trumps election. the american people-and especially the folks with limited labor market potential have bourn huge burdens as we have transitioned from an industrial to a knowledge based economy. globalization, fiscal austerity, job and earning loss, community dissolution etc. add war and covid to this and we might expect a traumatized effectively energized population. in this case it’s an angry population seeking g change. the interesting thing is why that change is going right rather than left. i believe part of trumps appeal reflects a change in our society to what i would call casino economics. the small scale business owners with working class roots who think of themselves as entrepreneurs i believe are a backbone of trump support in all racial groups. i think they believe trump-an erstwhile business man-is for them. and this is where our economy offers the working class some dynamism and hope. for various reasons they don’t see hope not in the corporations (rightly in my opinion) or the social democratic state (wrongly in my opinion).
Kenneth- Thanks so much for your thoughtful comment. I am probably, though less optimistic, in the promises of the social democratic state though I agree in principle. I see that you are in Pittsburgh. Glad to have some Yinzers reading the Substack.
For sure. I will send you an email. One small thing. We are planning a gathering of people adjacent to our Substack starting January. Read poetry. Tell stories. Sing songs. Drink beer. We can put you on the list. Will shoot an email soon.
One of the interesting things, I think, is how de-racinated Trump's 2024 (and 2020) platforms were compared to his 2016 platform. He likely came to believe that it was no longer possible to win on the basis of white populism due to demographic changes -- too much immigration, too much of an aging white population which had too few children to win on that basis moving forward -- and therefore he had to shift away from white populism and toward broad-based raceless economic populism. Indeed, this is similar to Latin America, where there are "right" and "left" parties but only on the basis of economic and religious positions, not race. Given demographic realities elections will be held on this basis moving forward unless Trump kicks out tens of millions of illegals, which I do not think will happen.
That sounds generally right to me. Though, I don't think deportation is going to change that. Illegals cannot vote and I think many (even Hispanic Americans) are OK with applying immigration law.
My estimate is that 20 million illegals were let in within the past four years alone, although official numbers are only something like 5 million. The level of deportations required to change just what happened in the past four years would be unprecedented in American history. How many illegals do you think Trump will deport?
My guess is that Trump will be allowed to build some miles of wall as a superficial win and he will evict some of the worst felon illegals, but structurally, what has happened will not be reversed.
I wonder what happens if things don't get better for the working class of any race.
it is good to see some reinforcement for the concept of class being reintroduced in to discussions about the distribution of health and wellbeing in our society. this constitutes a rediscovery of the original understanding of health inequities which emerged in the anglophone world in the UK 50 years ago when it was noted by Marmot and others that despite having a universal national health service, morbidity and mortality rates were profoundly linked to class. it has taken all those years for the US to catch up-though in crossing the Atlantic we dropped the notion of class and focused on race instead and we turned the social determinants of health from being about populations to being about individuals. i would argue this change is extremely revealing of our societal politics and the retreat from class and the concept of a social welfare state. this brings us to trumps election. the american people-and especially the folks with limited labor market potential have bourn huge burdens as we have transitioned from an industrial to a knowledge based economy. globalization, fiscal austerity, job and earning loss, community dissolution etc. add war and covid to this and we might expect a traumatized effectively energized population. in this case it’s an angry population seeking g change. the interesting thing is why that change is going right rather than left. i believe part of trumps appeal reflects a change in our society to what i would call casino economics. the small scale business owners with working class roots who think of themselves as entrepreneurs i believe are a backbone of trump support in all racial groups. i think they believe trump-an erstwhile business man-is for them. and this is where our economy offers the working class some dynamism and hope. for various reasons they don’t see hope not in the corporations (rightly in my opinion) or the social democratic state (wrongly in my opinion).
Kenneth- Thanks so much for your thoughtful comment. I am probably, though less optimistic, in the promises of the social democratic state though I agree in principle. I see that you are in Pittsburgh. Glad to have some Yinzers reading the Substack.
grant, given our shared interests i would love to have a coffee at some point and see what might be pursued in the burgh. thompsonks@upmc.edu
For sure. I will send you an email. One small thing. We are planning a gathering of people adjacent to our Substack starting January. Read poetry. Tell stories. Sing songs. Drink beer. We can put you on the list. Will shoot an email soon.